4. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Future Demographic Change

About this Lecture

Lecture

In this lecture, we think about how demographic patterns will develop going forward, focusing in particular on: (i) the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, in terms of its primary effects – a high death rate – and secondary economic effects in poor countries, wherein poverty has increased and life expectancy fallen; (ii) the wider issue, highlighted by the pandemic, of inequality as a major factor in demography; (iii) the question of whether the planet is full, in which Professor Goldin argues that issues typically linked to population growth, such as climate change, are more profoundly impacted by consumption behaviour than number of people.

Course

In this course, Professor Ian Goldin (University of Oxford) considers the causes, consequences and future of global population growth, centring on a single key question – is the planet full? In the first lecture, we explore global population growth throughout history and whether this will continue into the future, arguing that declining fertility rates suggest not. In the second lecture, we look at this decline, its global nature, its causes and its consequences for future demographic patterns. Next, we think about two issues associated with demographic change – consumption and its environmental impacts, and population ageing. In the fourth and final lecture, we consider the future of population growth in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, and conclude by addressing the question of whether the planet is full.

Lecturer

Professor Ian Goldin is Professor of Globalisation and Development and founder of the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford. He has a wide-ranging expertise in the field of development, and has held high-level positions at numerous international development agencies such as the OECD and World Bank in addition to his academic work. His publications include Rescue: From Global Crisis to a Better World (2021), Development: A Very Short Introduction (2018), The Pursuit of Development: Economic Growth, Social Change and Ideas (2016), and Is the Planet Full? (2014, editor).