Floods and Climate Change

Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems

In this course, Dr Linda Speight (University of Oxford) explores flood forecasting and warning systems. In the first module, we consider the impacts of flooding, how climate change is increasing flood risk, and the key steps in a flood forecasting and warning system. The second module examines the final step – decision making – and the third outlines how forecasting models are used to predict whether rainfall will lead to flooding. In the fourth module, we think about risk – the likelihood of flooding multiplied by its impact – in terms of how it is assessed and its importance in warning systems. In the fifth module, we explore how these systems failed during the July 2021 European floods to see what can be learned going forwards, and in the final module we look at future challenges for flood forecasting and warning systems.

Floods and Climate Change

In this module, we think about the societal impacts of flooding, and the role of climate change in increasing flood risk. We focus on: (i) the key negative effects of floods on people; (ii) the record floods experienced in Europe in July 2021, and the general increase in flooding across the world in recent years; (iii) how increases in average temperature associated with climate change lead to greater chance of flooding; (iv) other ways humans have increased flood risk, such as changes in land use; (v) measures to increase flood resilience, and the key steps in a flood forecasting and warning system.